Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the verge of a powerful move that could redefine its price trajectory, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt. The experienced chart analyst believes that if Bitcoin’s current four-year cycle deviates from its historical pattern, it could trigger an unusually strong rally — potentially pushing prices well beyond previous expectations.
Bitcoin Nears Key Cycle Turning Point
Speaking with Cointelegraph, Brandt highlighted that Bitcoin’s price action has historically followed a repeating pattern tied to its halving cycles — the events that cut mining rewards in half approximately every four years.
Brandt explained that Bitcoin typically peaks around the same duration after a halving as the time it took to reach that halving from the previous cycle low. Based on this logic, the trader pointed out that the current cycle’s low on Nov. 9, 2022, came 533 days before the latest halving on April 20, 2024.
“Add 533 days to April 20, 2024, and bingo, it is this week,” Brandt said, noting that the calculated date coincides with Bitcoin’s recent move to a new all-time high of $126,100 earlier this week.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $122,000, up nearly 10% over the past month, maintaining strong market momentum.
Cycles Could Still Break Tradition
While Brandt emphasized that Bitcoin’s cycles have so far remained consistent, he also warned that every trend eventually changes — and when it does, the resulting move is often explosive.
“There is always an ‘except,’” he said. “Trends that violate the prevailing cyclic or seasonal nature of markets are typically the most dramatic.”
This means that if Bitcoin fails to top within the expected cycle window, it could instead experience an extended bull phase that pushes the asset into uncharted territory.
Brandt stated that he remains 50/50 on the outcome, but if Bitcoin’s cycle extends beyond its usual timing, his next upside targets lie between $150,000 and $185,000. Such a move would represent one of the most significant rallies in Bitcoin’s history.
Four-Year Cycle Debate Intensifies
The concept of Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle has been a cornerstone of crypto market analysis for years. However, with increasing institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and corporate treasuries holding BTC, many analysts believe the traditional cycle dynamics may be evolving.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital previously noted that if Bitcoin follows its 2020 pattern, the market would likely peak around October 2025. However, deviations from this path could mark the start of a new era for BTC market behavior.
Some experts argue that while Bitcoin may not strictly adhere to a four-year cycle, it will continue to follow psychological and behavioral patterns — characterized by rapid accumulation, euphoria, correction, and reaccumulation.
Saad Ahmed, head of APAC at Gemini, told Cointelegraph that such patterns often stem from investor excitement leading to overextension, followed by natural market corrections that bring prices back to equilibrium.
Analysts Split on Whether a Major Top Is Near
While Brandt warns that a top could form “any day now,” he also leaves room for the possibility of a counter-cyclical rally that defies past behavior. Other market analysts share mixed views about Bitcoin’s immediate future.
Economist Timothy Peterson recently stated that there’s a 50% chance Bitcoin could end the month above $140,000, citing a decade’s worth of historical data simulations. Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Unchained’s Joe Burnett have forecast that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, fueled by continued institutional inflows and monetary expansion.
Despite differences in timing, analysts agree that liquidity, ETF participation, and macroeconomic conditions will play crucial roles in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory heading into 2026.
On-chain data from Glassnode also supports the case for extended bullish momentum, showing that long-term holders continue to accumulate BTC while exchange balances trend lower — a sign of investor confidence.
Conclusion: Will Bitcoin Defy Its Own History?
As Bitcoin consolidates near $122,000 after touching new highs, the market stands at a pivotal point. Peter Brandt’s analysis suggests that if Bitcoin fails to top within its traditional post-halving window, the result could be a dramatic, counter-cyclical breakout that carries the asset far beyond $150,000.
The coming weeks may determine whether Bitcoin’s four-year rhythm remains intact or gives way to a new paradigm shaped by institutional adoption and broader financial integration. Either way, traders and investors are watching closely — because history, as Brandt notes, “rarely repeats perfectly, but it often rhymes.”
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