Key Takeaways
- DOT lost the $2.00 level, which has flipped into strong resistance.
- The $1.84 to the $1.85 zone is critical; losing it opens fast downside risk.
- A reversal likely requires holding $2 ahead of the March 2026 issuance cut.
Polkadot (DOT) is back on the edge. The early-month breakout narrative is fading fast.
At press time, DOT now trades near $1.93 after losing the $2 psychological floor. As a result, bulls are no longer in control as bears now have the upper hand.
Here is what led to that and how it could affect Polkadot’s price bullish prediction.
Polkadot Continues to Drop
First, the chart is breaking down. DOT fell below $2 on Jan. 19, and that level has now flipped into resistance. Next, momentum has turned.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is negative, which signals sellers are pressing harder.
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Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 39.69, rising from the oversold point.
However, it shows weak demand and plenty of room for another leg down. Therefore, $1.84 becomes the must-hold level. Lose it, and the downside opens quickly.
Looking closely, Polkadot’s price is attempting to stabilize near $1.85 after sliding through a descending channel on the 4-hour chart.
However, momentum remains fragile as the price still trades below the $1.94 resistance zone. The structure shows lower highs pressing against a falling trendline despite a minor bounce from $1.79 support.
As a result, DOT needs to reclaim the $1.94 area to shift sentiment and open room toward $2.21; otherwise, the risk of continued consolidation or another downside test remains elevated.
Then the fundamentals aren’t helping. Polkadot shipped a significant upgrade on Jan. 20, but the price barely reacted.
That looks like “sell the news.” It also signals that the market has already priced in the improvements.
At the same time, macro conditions remain tight.
Yields stay high. Liquidity stays selective. So capital keeps favoring Bitcoin’s price and hard assets instead of mid-cap alts like DOT.
DOT Price Analysis
On the daily chart, Polkadot remains under pressure, trading near $1.85.
Notably, it is yet to break above the descending supertrend around $2.19 and is unable to reclaim the $2.09 resistance.
The broader structure continues to reflect a downtrend, with lower highs intact and momentum indicators staying soft despite a modest daily bounce.
As long as DOT holds above the $1.70 support zone, downside risk appears contained.
However, a stronger recovery likely requires a move back above $2.10 to signal a shift in trend and attract sustained buying interest.
Still, the bull case is not dead. It is just delayed.
The next big inflection point is March 14, 2026. Polkadot is expected to implement its first issuance cut and hard-cap shift, reducing new supply materially.
If DOT’s price can hold above $2 through this liquidity drought, that supply shock could reset sentiment. Then the market can start talking about $3.13 again.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
